Heat Pump vs. Gas Furnace Cost: Which Is Cheaper in Your State?

Quick answer

It depends on your electricity price compared with your gas price. At U.S. average home prices for January through July 2026 (18.19¢ per kWh and $16.34 per thousand cubic feet of gas, per the EIA), 1 million Btu of heat costs about $24.25 from a minimum-efficiency heat pump, $17.32 from a top-rated one, $19.72 from an 80% AFUE gas furnace, and $16.60 from a 95% furnace. By state, the minimum heat pump beats an 80% furnace in 14 states, mostly in the South, and the top-rated one in 27. Quick test: a standard heat pump costs less than an 80% furnace when your electricity price in cents per kWh is below 9.4 times your gas price in dollars per therm.

How to compare: the cost of 1 million Btu of heat

A heat pump buys kilowatt-hours and a furnace buys gas, so compare what each pays for the same heat delivered into your home: here, 1 million Btu. EIA conversions: 1 kWh = 3,412 Btu, 1 cubic foot of natural gas = 1,036 Btu, and 1 therm = 100,000 Btu.

Heat pump, at the U.S. average of 18.19¢ per kWh:

1. 1,000,000 Btu ÷ 3,412 Btu per kWh = 293.1 kWh.
2. 293.1 kWh × $0.1819 = $53.31. That is the cost with electric resistance heat, such as a heat pump’s backup strips, which Carrier describes as 100% efficient.
3. A heat pump moves heat rather than making it, so divide by its seasonal COP (heat out per unit of electricity in, or HSPF2 ÷ 3.412; see below). Federal minimum: $53.31 ÷ (7.5 ÷ 3.412) = $24.25. Top-rated: $53.31 ÷ (10.5 ÷ 3.412) = $17.32.

Gas furnace, at the U.S. average of $16.34 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf):

1. 1 Mcf = 1,000 cubic feet × 1,036 Btu = 1.036 million Btu.
2. $16.34 ÷ 1.036 = $15.77 per million Btu of gas burned.
3. Divide by the furnace’s AFUE: ÷ 0.80 = $19.72, or ÷ 0.95 = $16.60.

The efficiency numbers behind the math

Heat pumps: HSPF2 to seasonal COP. ENERGY STAR defines HSPF2 as a heating season’s total heat in Btu divided by the electricity used in watt-hours. One watt-hour is 3.412 Btu, so HSPF2 ÷ 3.412 is a season-average COP.

• HSPF2 7.5 = COP 2.20, the federal minimum for split-system heat pumps made on or after January 1, 2023 (10 CFR 430.32).
• HSPF2 10.5 = COP 3.08. Carrier lists its Infinity 24 (25VNA4), the most efficient heat pump it makes, at up to 10.5 HSPF2. Treat that as a high-end case.
• For reference, ENERGY STAR certification requires at least 7.8 HSPF2 for split systems (COP 2.29).

Gas furnaces: AFUE is the percentage of the fuel’s heat that becomes space heat instead of being lost (ENERGY STAR).

• 80% AFUE is the federal minimum for non-weatherized gas furnaces (10 CFR 430.32).
• 95% AFUE is ENERGY STAR’s minimum for gas furnaces in the U.S. South. Its 97% minimum for the North would cost about 2% less than the 95% figures here.

The break-even test

A heat pump is cheaper than a furnace when:

price per kWh is less than price per therm × COP ÷ (AFUE × 29.31)

The 29.31 is the number of kWh in a therm (100,000 ÷ 3,412). For each pairing, that works out to a simple multiplier:

Heat pump vs. furnace	Heat pump is cheaper when your ¢/kWh is below	At the U.S. average gas price ($1.58 per therm)
HSPF2 7.5 vs. 80% AFUE	9.4 × your $ per therm	14.8¢
HSPF2 7.5 vs. 95% AFUE	7.9 × your $ per therm	12.4¢
HSPF2 10.5 vs. 80% AFUE	13.1 × your $ per therm	20.7¢
HSPF2 10.5 vs. 95% AFUE	11.1 × your $ per therm	17.4¢

U.S. average gas price: $16.34 per Mcf ÷ 10.36 therms per Mcf = $1.58 per therm. Source: Formula from EIA Btu conversions; efficiencies from 10 CFR 430.32, ENERGY STAR, and Carrier; U.S. average gas price from EIA Natural Gas Monthly, Table 20 (January through July 2026)

At the U.S. average electricity price for the same months, 18.19¢ per kWh, the only heat pump that wins is the top-rated one against an 80% furnace (18.19¢ is below 20.7¢).

Gas billed in hundred cubic feet (Ccf)? Divide your price per Ccf by 1.036 to get a price per therm (1 Ccf holds 103,600 Btu at the EIA’s average heat content).

Heat pump vs. gas furnace cost by state

From January to July 2026, electricity ranged from 12.36¢ per kWh in North Dakota to 46.28¢ in Hawaii, and gas from $8.10 per Mcf in Idaho to $27.41 in Massachusetts (Hawaii is higher still). At those prices:

• A minimum-efficiency heat pump (HSPF2 7.5) beats an 80% furnace in 14 states: Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, and Washington.
• A top-rated heat pump (HSPF2 10.5) beats an 80% furnace in 27 states, and beats even a 95% furnace in 20 of them.
• An 80% furnace beats even the top-rated heat pump in 23 states and DC: Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wisconsin.

State	Electricity (¢/kWh)	Gas ($/Mcf)	Heat pump, HSPF2 7.5	Heat pump, HSPF2 10.5	Gas furnace, 80% AFUE	Gas furnace, 95% AFUE
U.S. average	18.19	16.34	$24.25	$17.32	$19.72	$16.60
Alabama	16.54	17.84	$22.05	$15.75	$21.53	$18.13
Alaska	27.09	13.63	$36.12	$25.80	$16.45	$13.85
Arizona	15.44	19.70	$20.59	$14.70	$23.77	$20.02
Arkansas	13.61	21.97	$18.15	$12.96	$26.51	$22.32
California	33.25	21.91*	$44.33	$31.67	$26.44	$22.27
Colorado	16.72	11.52	$22.29	$15.92	$13.90	$11.70
Connecticut	27.97	18.56*	$37.29	$26.64	$22.40	$18.86
Delaware	17.86	17.93	$23.81	$17.01	$21.63	$18.22
District of Columbia	24.66	18.05	$32.88	$23.49	$21.78	$18.34
Florida	15.30	24.42†	$20.40	$14.57	$29.46	$24.81
Georgia	15.40	20.96	$20.53	$14.67	$25.29	$21.30
Hawaii	46.28	62.03*	$61.71	$44.08	$74.84	$63.02
Idaho	12.96	8.10	$17.28	$12.34	$9.77	$8.23
Illinois	19.22	12.08	$25.63	$18.30	$14.58	$12.27
Indiana	17.04	12.11	$22.72	$16.23	$14.61	$12.30
Iowa	14.20	12.42	$18.93	$13.52	$14.99	$12.62
Kansas	15.21	14.32*	$20.28	$14.49	$17.28	$14.55
Kentucky	14.27	16.90	$19.03	$13.59	$20.39	$17.17
Louisiana	13.35	16.11†	$17.80	$12.71	$19.44	$16.37
Maine	29.99	19.90*	$39.99	$28.56	$24.01	$20.22
Maryland	21.30	17.42*	$28.40	$20.29	$21.02	$17.70
Massachusetts	30.14	27.41	$40.19	$28.70	$33.07	$27.85
Michigan	21.53	11.64	$28.71	$20.50	$14.04	$11.83
Minnesota	16.25	12.16	$21.67	$15.48	$14.67	$12.36
Mississippi	15.19	17.05	$20.25	$14.47	$20.57	$17.32
Missouri	13.96	16.56	$18.61	$13.30	$19.98	$16.83
Montana	13.95	8.85	$18.60	$13.29	$10.68	$8.99
Nebraska	12.90	11.94	$17.20	$12.29	$14.41	$12.13
Nevada	13.53	10.60	$18.04	$12.89	$12.79	$10.77
New Hampshire	26.79	20.60*	$35.72	$25.51	$24.85	$20.93
New Jersey	23.98	14.53	$31.97	$22.84	$17.53	$14.76
New Mexico	15.08	10.17*	$20.11	$14.36	$12.27	$10.33
New York	29.38	18.87	$39.17	$27.98	$22.77	$19.17
North Carolina	14.94	19.99*	$19.92	$14.23	$24.12	$20.31
North Dakota	12.36	9.73	$16.48	$11.77	$11.74	$9.89
Ohio	18.70	13.34*	$24.93	$17.81	$16.09	$13.55
Oklahoma	13.58	15.26	$18.11	$12.93	$18.41	$15.50
Oregon	15.40	16.98	$20.53	$14.67	$20.49	$17.25
Pennsylvania	21.04	16.05	$28.05	$20.04	$19.37	$16.31
Rhode Island	29.22	17.43	$38.96	$27.83	$21.03	$17.71
South Carolina	15.93	18.94*	$21.24	$15.17	$22.85	$19.24
South Dakota	14.50	10.96	$19.33	$13.81	$13.22	$11.14
Tennessee	13.87	13.58	$18.49	$13.21	$16.39	$13.80
Texas	16.06	21.72	$21.41	$15.30	$26.21	$22.07
Utah	13.16	11.13	$17.55	$12.53	$13.43	$11.31
Vermont	23.95	17.63	$31.93	$22.81	$21.27	$17.91
Virginia	16.83	18.48	$22.44	$16.03	$22.30	$18.78
Washington	14.40	18.56*	$19.20	$13.71	$22.40	$18.86
West Virginia	15.47	14.37*	$20.63	$14.73	$17.34	$14.60
Wisconsin	19.00	12.28	$25.33	$18.10	$14.82	$12.48
Wyoming	13.95	12.01	$18.60	$13.29	$14.49	$12.20

Bold marks the lowest cost in each row. * EIA has not published a January to July 2026 gas average for this state; the figure is a volume-weighted average of the 2026 months it did publish (4 to 6 of 7). † No usable 2026 data; EIA's January to July 2025 average. Heat pump COP from HSPF2 ÷ 3.412; gas at 1,036 Btu per cubic foot. Source: EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B (residential, year to date through July 2026); EIA Natural Gas Monthly, September 2026, Table 20 (residential, 2026 7-month year to date)

What it adds up to over a heating season

A yearly figure depends on how much heat a home uses. In the EIA’s 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, homes heating with natural gas used an average of 44.9 million Btu of gas for space heating, or 449 therms, with regional averages from 29.7 million Btu in the West to 62.9 million in the Midwest.

Burned in an 80% furnace, that gas delivers about 35.9 million Btu of heat. At January to July 2026 U.S. average prices, the same heat costs:

System	Energy used	Cost
Gas furnace, 80% AFUE	449 therms	$708
Gas furnace, 95% AFUE	378 therms	$596
Heat pump, HSPF2 7.5	4,789 kWh	$871
Heat pump, HSPF2 10.5	3,421 kWh	$622

An illustration that combines 2020 use with 2026 prices, not a forecast for your home. Source: Gas use from EIA RECS 2020, Table CE5.4; prices from EIA Table 5.6.B and Natural Gas Monthly Table 20 (U.S. averages, January through July 2026)

Why your real costs may differ

• Climate changes a heat pump’s real COP. HSPF2 is calculated for one climate region (Region IV, per ENERGY STAR’s definition), so it is a rating, not a promise. ENERGY STAR’s cold-climate label requires a COP of at least 1.75 at 5°F; at that COP, 1 million Btu costs $30.46 at the U.S. average price, more than either furnace.
• Backup heat costs more. Below a heat pump’s balance point, where its capacity meets the home’s heat demand, supplemental heat may run (Carrier). Electric strips work at a COP of 1, or $53.31 per million Btu at the U.S. average. See aux heat vs. emergency heat for what strips cost per hour.
• Prices change every month. U.S. residential gas averaged $13.96 per Mcf in January 2026 and $26.45 in July (EIA). A July-only comparison would make gas look far pricier than in heating season, so this guide averages January to July for both fuels. Electricity was 18.31¢ per kWh in July alone.
• Averages are not your bill. EIA gas prices include taxes, delivery, commodity, and other charges, and both fuels are statewide averages. Your own rates, including tiered or time-of-use plans, can move the number either way.
• Some costs are left out: the furnace blower’s electricity, cooling, and installation. These figures count only the energy that makes heat.

Run the numbers with your own bills

1. Price per kWh: your electric bill’s total ÷ kWh used.
2. Price per therm: your gas bill’s total ÷ therms used (or use the Ccf conversion above).
3. Apply the multiplier from the break-even table. At $1.40 per therm, for example, a standard heat pump beats an 80% furnace only if electricity costs less than 13.1¢ per kWh (1.40 × 9.37).
4. Estimate a heat pump’s kWh from your winter gas use: therms × AFUE × 29.31 ÷ COP. For 449 therms in an 80% furnace and a COP of 2.20, that is about 4,790 kWh. If your water heater, range, or dryer also burns gas, first subtract a typical summer month’s use from each winter month.
5. Multiply those kWh by your price per kWh and compare with what you paid for gas.

For kWh math on other appliances, try the appliance cost calculator, and for other ways to cut the bill, see how to lower your electric bill. If you already have a heat pump, the winter thermostat settings guide covers settings that help it avoid backup heat.

How we calculated these numbers

• Electricity: EIA Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.B, statewide average residential price for January through July 2026 (released September 24, 2026).
• Natural gas: EIA Natural Gas Monthly, September 2026 issue (released September 30, 2026), Table 20, residential price by state, 2026 seven-month year to date. EIA shows no 2026 average for 15 states. For the 13 marked *, we weighted the monthly prices EIA did publish by its monthly residential gas volumes. Tested on the 35 states and DC where EIA did publish an average, this method came within 3.5% of EIA’s figure in every case but Oklahoma (9%, one month missing). Florida and Louisiana (†) use EIA’s January to July 2025 averages because too few 2026 months are published.
• Conversions and efficiencies: 1 kWh = 3,412 Btu; 1 cubic foot of gas = 1,036 Btu; 1 therm = 100,000 Btu (EIA). Seasonal COP = HSPF2 ÷ 3.412 (7.5 gives 2.198; 10.5 gives 3.077).
• Rounding: calculated by script and rounded to the cent. We recalculate when the EIA publishes new monthly prices.